Self-Consistent Predictive Modelling of 15MA Inductive Scenarios in ITER

Integrated simulations combining the free boundary equilibrium code CREATE-NL and the JET suite of codes JINTRAC have been performed for the prediction of the 15MA ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER in order to assess its viability, its operational space, its compatibility with machine constraints, in particular with the Poloidal Field (PF) coil system, and to evaluate possible risks related to transient events as e.g. an H-L transition. To this end, an analysis of the sensitivity of the scenario to the current ramp rate dIpl/dt, to heating and fuelling schemes, to the time of transitions to (L-H) and from (H-L) H-mode, to the dynamic of these transitions and to the assumptions on the Hmode evolution from the L-H transition to Q = 10 has been done. The results of these sensitivity studies and their consequences on the scenario are the subject of this paper.
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