EFDA-JET-PR(14)08

Prediction of the Time to Disruption in JET with an ITER-Like Wall

Avoidance and mitigation of disruptions are crucial problems in ITER and are becoming increasingly relevant at JET with the installation of the new ITER-Like Wall (ILW). But it is important to emphasize that disruption prediction is a pre-requisite to put into operation any avoidance or mitigation methodology. The design of disruption predictors mainly takes into account the achievement of predictions with high success rate, low false alarm rate and enough anticipation time. An important issue in the estimation of the time to the disruption is to set bounds to the prediction error. An accurate estimation would allow the set-up of active avoidance/mitigation actions in direct dependence to the time to disruption from the prediction. This article describes a new generation of disruption predictors with very accurate determination of the time to disruption. The predictor has been tested with 1237 JET discharges during the ITER-like wall campaigns. The results show success rates of 100%, false alarm rates close to 0%, enough anticipation time (>128ms) and high accuracy in the time to disruption estimation (in the order of ms).
Name Size  
EFDP14008 882.98 Kb